This study highlights the importance of examining historical documentary sources for extreme events, providing a framework on how to research case studies of premodern Atlantic hurricanes back in time. Clearly, such a storm today, with much larger metropolitan areas, would have caused enormous economic damage and should be anticipated in long-term hurricane mitigation, zoning, and worst-case scenarios. Although this storm has been previously referred to as one of the most destructive hurricanes in the history of Cuba, the impacts of the Great Havana Hurricane actually spanned well beyond the Caribbean, tracking from Florida through many major populated cities along the East Coast and into Atlantic Canada. In this study, we clearly define the first known record of a landfalling Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, which likely ranks among the top of all those known in the modern (1851–present) Atlantic Basin official hurricane database. The storm was found to be much stronger than previously known. Meteorological aspects of the hurricane were analyzed by mapping twice-daily surface synoptic weather maps from geographic information systems methods, estimating central pressures from known wind–pressure relationships derived from modern hurricane studies, and assessing intensity based on damage descriptions from the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and an inland decay model. Most of the data were extracted from original manuscripts at historical libraries and repositories. This article reconstructed the track, intensity, and societal impacts of the Great Havana Hurricane of October 1846, using all available historical data, which include ship logs, newspapers, diaries, and early instrumental records. This physical process increases TC landfalls in North America, especially major hurricane landfalls in the continental United States, leading to greater potential destructiveness. Suppression of the sea surface temperature (SST) by the Saharan dust plume can hinder TC tracks over the central tropical North Atlantic, inducing westward development of TC tracks to the western tropical North Atlantic with higher SST, which is more conducive to TCs forming major hurricanes. Using reanalysis data and model simulations, this study reveals an increase in September landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) during years that have a strengthened Saharan dust plume, and the related physical processes are investigated by analyzing the relationship of dust aerosol optical depth with TC track, intensity, and the related meteorological environment. Therefore, the peak intensity of strong TCs is also found to be directly correlated with the water temperature in these two upwelling regions on an interdecadal timescale. Moreover, coastal upwelling off Northwest Africa and southern Europe can affect subsurface ocean temperature in the extratropical North Atlantic. A possible physical mechanism is that subsurface ocean temperature in the extratropical North Atlantic can affect local sea surface temperature (SST) on the other hand, the moisture generated by the warming SST in the extratropical North Atlantic is transported to the main region of TC development in the tropics by a near-surface anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the tropical North Atlantic, affecting TC peak intensity. It is found that the peak intensity of basin-wide strong TCs (Categories 4 and 5) is positively correlated with subsurface ocean temperature in the extratropical North Atlantic. Seas will become rough to very rough with moderate to heavy swells as the system moves closer to the Vanuatu islands.The relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) peak intensity and subsurface ocean temperature is investigated in this study using atmospheric and ocean reanalysis data. Heavy rainfalls are expected over Vanuatu group with flash flooding expected in low lying areas, areas close to the river banks, including coastal flooding. The extent of the warning & watch zones reflects this. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.ĭue to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The forecast path shown above is VMGD's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity.
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